Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-09-14
Algolearn.AI September 13, 2026 3 min read 19 views
Earnings 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-27 · 2 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-09-14 and 2026-09-27. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. COST — Costco Wholesale Corporation (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-09-24 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-09-25 |
| Legs | -1 940C / +1 960C / -1 875P / +1 860P (all 9/25 exp) |
| Entry | +$6.17 credit per iron condor (mid-market) |
| Max risk / reward | $1383 / $617 · breakeven $868.83 (lower) / $946.17 (upper) |
| P&L | +4.0%: +$479 · -4.0%: -$31 · flat: +$617 |
| IV | ATM IV 27.2% · expected move 4.0% · expected 4.03% vs hist 2.72% -> 48% overpriced; August SSS (+9.9%) already public on 9/2, removing the main fundamental wildcard before the formal print |
| Thesis | Costco options are pricing in a move nearly 50% above the 8-quarter historical average of 2.72%, a pronounced overpricing that creates clear premium-selling edge. The key uncertainty—August same-store sales—was already disclosed on 9/2 (+9.9% total, +17.9% digital), so the earnings report is primarily a margin and EPS confirmation rather than a revenue surprise event. Analyst consensus ($1,000–$1,125 price targets) sits well above current levels, and COST's 8-consecutive-day losing streak has already stress-tested near the 52-week-low zone (~$855), making a sudden gap outside the IC wings unlikely. The call side carries slightly more risk ($1,383 vs. $883 on the put side) given the $20 vs. $15 spread widths, but both wings sit outside the straddle's implied range. |
| Enter by | 9/24 by 3:45 pm ET (earnings AMC) |
2. TCOM — Trip.com Group Limited (long straddle)
| Earnings | 2026-09-15 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-09-18 |
| Legs | +1 40C / +1 40P (both 9/18 exp) |
| Entry | -$2.75 debit per straddle (mid-market) |
| Max risk / reward | $275 / $3725 · breakeven $37.25 (lower) / $42.75 (upper) |
| P&L | +7.0%: -$88 · -7.0%: +$88 · flat: -$187 |
| IV | ATM IV 64.5% · expected move 7.0% · expected 7.03% vs hist 7.92% -> 11% underpriced; HSBC downgrade to Hold on 9/3 and serial analyst PT cuts signal directional uncertainty the IV is not fully capturing |
| Thesis | TCOM options are pricing 11% less volatility than the stock has historically delivered on earnings day, and the surrounding news flow argues for a wider-than-usual outcome: HSBC downgraded from Buy to Hold on 9/3, China Renaissance cut to Hold ($42 PT on 7/2), while EPS estimates have declined from $0.90 last year to $0.84 this quarter. The stock sits 51% below its 52-week high near multi-year support (~$38.70), amplifying the potential for either capitulation (–12.55% last quarter) or a sharp relief bounce if management guides above the reduced bar. The straddle has a natural downside bias because the 40 strike sits $0.88 above the $39.12 spot, making the lower breakeven (–4.8% from spot) meaningfully easier to reach than the upper (+9.3%); upside profit is theoretically unlimited beyond $42.75. Max reward of $3,725 shown reflects downside cap (stock to zero); upside is uncapped. |
| Enter by | 9/15 by 3:30 pm ET (earnings AMC same evening) |
Watchlist
- CTAS — Expected move 5.19% vs hist 4.46% (16.3% overpriced) technically triggers the premium-sell rule, but the 9/25 chain is illiquid: ATM call bid/ask $3.80/$6.30 (49.5% spread), 25-delta call $0.65/$2.65 (121% spread), 25-delta put $0.90/$2.50 (94% spread). Realistic credit on any IC structure collapses to near zero after crossing both bid/ask gaps. Revisit morning of 9/22 if spreads compress; a bear call spread (sell 205C / buy 210C) could become viable if the 25-delta wing narrows below a 25% spread.
- AZO — AZO (BMO 9/22), PAYX (BMO 9/23), and DRI (BMO 9/24) all lack a post-earnings weekly: theta_find_expiry_near returned 9/18 for each regardless of target date, placing the only available expiry before the report dates. The 10/16 monthly was excluded as carrying 3+ weeks of excess theta risk with no edge from earnings proximity. All three are watchlisted pending a 9/25 weekly opening or confirmation of a second expiry cycle.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 4.0% | 2.7% | OVERPRICED |
| CTAS | 5.2% | 4.5% | OVERPRICED |
| TCOM | 7.0% | 7.9% | UNDERPRICED |
Generated 2026-09-13 23:45 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-09-14