Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-09-07
Algolearn.AI September 6, 2026 3 min read 11 views
Earnings 2026-09-07 ? 2026-09-20 · 1 trade · 4 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-20. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. ADBE — Adobe Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-09-10 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-09-11 |
| Legs | -1 287.5C / +1 297.5C / -1 250P / +1 242.5P (Sep 11 expiry; call wing 10 pts, put wing 7.5 pts; mids $3.90/$2.185/$4.025/$2.34) |
| Entry | +$3.40 credit per condor (mid-to-mid; realistic fill estimate $2.78-$3.40) |
| Max risk / reward | $660 / $340 · breakeven $246.60 to $290.90 |
| P&L | +8.1%: +$217 (stock ~$288.73; short 287.5C breached by $1.23, put wing keeps full $168.50 credit) · -8.1%: -$131 (stock ~$245.29; short 250P breached by $4.71, call wing keeps full $171.50 credit) · flat: +$340 (all four legs expire worthless, full credit retained) |
| IV | ATM IV 84.7% · expected move 8.1% · ATM IV 84.7% - expected move 8.1% - expected 8.1% vs hist 6.0% (6 quarters) -> 36% overpriced; the CEO-transition vega spike is now stale. Anil Chakravarthy was named Sept 3 and the stock absorbed a 6.7% drop the following session, leaving the remaining unknown at the print purely operational |
| Thesis | Adobe's implied 8.1% move overpays its 6.0% six-quarter average by 36%, inflated by the CEO-succession uncertainty that resolved when Anil Chakravarthy was named on Sept 3, an internal hire; the stock took the resulting 6.7% drop on Sept 4 and has since absorbed it. With the leadership overhang cleared, the earnings volatility driver reverts to operational results, which have averaged 6.0% over six quarters with a 6.04% median - comfortably inside the condor's profitable band of $246.60-$290.90. Near-flat skew (-0.7%) shows no directional consensus, making a symmetric structure appropriate, and the one-day expiry captures post-earnings discovery with minimal extrinsic time-value risk. |
| Enter by | 2026-09-10 by 4:00 PM ET (before AMC report) |
Watchlist
- ORCL — Options price an 11.8% expected move against a 13.7% six-quarter average, which reads as underpriced - but two data problems keep it off the trade list. First, the Sep-11 chain reports an underlying of $155.73 against a Sept 4 close of $158.78, a 1.96% mismatch that makes strike selection and P&L estimates unreliable; the ATM strike resolves to $155 when the true at-the-money sits nearer $160, so the quoted mids cannot be trusted either. Second, that 13.7% average is carried by a single 35.9% gap in Sept 2025. The median of the six prints is 10.0%, against which the same 11.8% implied move reads roughly 18% OVERpriced rather than underpriced, and only 2 of the 6 prints exceeded it. The mean and the median disagree on the direction of the trade. Revisit once the chain and the tape agree.
- CPRT — Options price an 8.4% expected move vs a 4.37% six-quarter average - 91% overpriced in relative terms, a textbook sell-premium candidate. However the Sep 18 chain is severely illiquid: the ATM call spread is 34.5% of mid, and the 15-delta and 25-delta calls resolve to the same $37.50 strike, leaving no viable OTM wing for a spread. The 8-day gap between the Sept 10 print and the Sept 18 expiry also inflates non-earnings premium. Skip until chain depth improves near a future print.
- SUNB — Options price an 11.9% expected move against a 9.41% historical figure, but that baseline rests on exactly one earnings print (-9.41%, June 2026). One observation is not an average, so no pricing verdict is published for it here and it is excluded from the comparison table below. Compounding issues: extreme put skew (40%), a wide 21.5% ATM call spread, and a 9-day gap between the Sept 9 print and the Sept 18 expiry. Revisit once at least 3 quarters of measured history exist.
- KR — Expected 5.7% against a 5.72% six-quarter average, with a 4.95% median - fair, and inside the +/-10% no-trade band. There is no premium edge in either direction at that pricing, so it is listed for completeness rather than as a candidate.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 11.8% | 13.7% | UNDERPRICED |
| ADBE | 8.1% | 6.0% | OVERPRICED |
| KR | 5.7% | 5.7% | FAIR |
| CPRT | 8.4% | 4.4% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-09-06 19:55 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-09-07