Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-07-20
Algolearn.AI July 19, 2026 3 min read 8 views
Earnings 2026-07-20 ? 2026-08-02 · 3 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-07-20 and 2026-08-02. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. AAPL — Apple Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-07-30 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-31 |
| Legs | -1 350C / +1 360C / -1 320P / +1 310P |
| Entry | +$3.27 credit per condor |
| Max risk / reward | $673 / $327 · breakeven $316.73 to $353.27 |
| P&L | +5.6%: +$91 · -5.6%: -$179 · flat: +$327 |
| IV | ATM IV 38.8% · expected move 5.6% · Expected 5.60% vs historical 1.97% avg (last 8Q) — 184% overpriced; AAPL at 52-week high ($333.74); put skew at 7.94% adds extra credit to the short put leg (320P bid $3.90) |
| Thesis | AAPL has posted an average absolute earnings move of just 1.97% over the last 8 quarters (range 0.38%–5.98%), yet Jul-31 options price in a 5.60% move — nearly 3× the historical norm. The $10-wide iron condor collects $3.27 and stays profitable even if the stock moves the full expected amount upward (+$91 at +5.60%). The stock is at its 52-week high heading into earnings, which adds some tail risk on the upside, but the statistical premium overpricing is extreme enough to justify defined-risk vol selling. Put skew of 7.94% enriches the put side of the condor. |
| Enter by | 2026-07-30 by 3:50 pm ET (before AMC close) |
2. GOOG — Alphabet Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-07-22 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-24 |
| Legs | -1 367.5C / +1 377.5C / -1 330P / +1 320P |
| Entry | +$3.63 credit per condor |
| Max risk / reward | $637 / $363 · breakeven $326.37 to $371.13 |
| P&L | +6.5%: +$232 · -6.5%: -$242 · flat: +$363 |
| IV | ATM IV 69.5% · expected move 6.5% · Expected 6.47% vs historical 4.38% avg (last 6Q) — 48% overpriced; Feb 2026 and Feb 2025 moves were -1.0% and -0.3% respectively, pulling the realized average well below current implied; 7 consecutive EPS beats |
| Thesis | GOOG's Jul-24 weekly is pricing in a 6.47% move, but the realized average across the last 6 quarters is only 4.38% — three of those quarters saw moves under 2%. The condor collects $3.63 and remains profitable if GOOG ends anywhere in the $326.37–$371.13 range at Friday expiry. With 7 consecutive EPS beats and the stock trading 13% below its 52-week high at $399, downside support is present. GOOG and TSLA are both reporting Wednesday 7/22 AMC — enter both condors before Wednesday's close. |
| Enter by | 2026-07-22 by 3:50 pm ET (before AMC close) |
3. TSLA — Tesla, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-07-22 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-24 |
| Legs | -1 405C / +1 420C / -1 360P / +1 350P |
| Entry | +$4.62 credit per condor |
| Max risk / reward | $1038 / $462 · breakeven $355.38 to $409.62 |
| P&L | +7.1%: +$277 · -7.1%: -$221 · flat: +$462 |
| IV | ATM IV 78.1% · expected move 7.1% · Expected 7.07% vs recent 4Q avg 4.83% — 46% overpriced; ATM IV 78.12%, highest of all six candidates; 8Q avg is 8.56% including Oct 2024 outlier (+21.92%) which represents the primary tail risk |
| Thesis | TSLA's four most recent earnings quarters averaged a 4.83% absolute move (Jan 2026: -3.45%, Oct 2025: +2.28%, Jul 2025: -8.20%, Apr 2025: +5.37%), well below the 7.07% priced into the Jul-24 weekly at 78% IV. The condor collects $4.62 and is profitable through the full expected range on the upside (+$277 at +7.07%). Wings are asymmetric: call side $15 wide (405/420), put side $10 wide (360/350), so max risk lives on the call side at $1,038. Key caveat: the 8Q average of 8.56% is inflated by the Oct 2024 outlier (+21.92%) — size conservatively at 1 lot per $25K of risk capital. |
| Enter by | 2026-07-22 by 3:50 pm ET (before AMC close) |
Watchlist
- MSFT — Jul-31 weekly prices in 8.99% expected move vs historical pre-earnings straddle avg of ~4.4% (per IBKR Campus data) — the strongest overpricing ratio in the scan at ~2.1×. Highly unusual negative call skew (-12.2%; call 25d IV 66.3% vs put 25d IV 58.2%) signals heavy upside positioning, likely tied to AI Copilot revenue expectations. An iron condor or short call spread is compelling, but earnings are not until 7/29 AMC and the skew dynamic suggests the market expects a beat — wait for cloud-guidance pre-announcements or analyst commentary before committing.
- META — Jul-31 weekly prices in 10.42% expected move; the 8Q realized avg is 7.28% (overpriced signal) but the 16Q historical avg is ~11.8% (underpriced signal) — mixed verdict. With ATM IV at 70%, the straddle costs $67.53/share ($6,753 per lot), making long-premium trades prohibitively expensive without strong directional conviction. EPS estimate of $7.09 is slightly below last year's $7.14, raising negative-surprise risk. Watch for Llama/AI capex news or analyst upgrades ahead of 7/29 AMC to establish a lean before entering.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 5.6% | 2.0% | OVERPRICED |
| GOOG | 6.5% | 4.4% | OVERPRICED |
| TSLA | 7.1% | 4.8% | OVERPRICED |
| MSFT | 9.0% | 4.4% | OVERPRICED |
| META | 10.4% | 7.3% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-07-19 14:15 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-07-20
