Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-08-03
Algolearn.AI August 2, 2026 5 min read 61 views
CORRECTED - 2 August 2026
The first version of this scan compared each implied move against a historical figure that was researched rather than measured. Three of the four were wrong, and since every "% overpriced" verdict is implied divided by historical, the conclusions built on them were wrong too - most seriously a CSCO iron condor billed as ~148% overpriced against a "~4.0%" history, when Cisco's measured mean earnings move is 6.96% and its last two reports moved -12.32% and +13.41%.
The scanner now measures every historical move from price history, with report dates confirmed against the earnings calendar, and refuses to publish if the figures it reports disagree with what was measured. This article has been regenerated on that basis. The conclusions changed: Applied Materials moves from the watchlist to the strongest trade in the scan, and Eli Lilly moves the other way - measured, its options are fairly priced, not rich.
Educational content, not investment advice.
Earnings 2026-08-03 to 2026-08-16 · 3 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-16. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. AMD — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-04 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-07 |
| Legs | -1 AMD 527.5C / +1 AMD 557.5C / -1 AMD 435P / +1 AMD 412.5P (all 2026-08-07) |
| Entry | +$9.73 credit per IC |
| Max risk / reward | $2028 / $972 · breakeven $425.28 to $537.23 |
| P&L | +11.4%: +$972.50 · -11.4%: -$800.50 · flat: +$972.50 |
| IV | ATM IV 135.1% · expected move 11.4% · expected 11.42% vs hist 8.80% to IV is ~30% overpriced; short call at 527.5 (+11.9% from spot) sits just above the expected-move ceiling; short put at 435 (–7.6%) provides ample downside buffer |
| Thesis | AMD options price a 29.8% premium over the 6-quarter historical average earnings move of 8.8%. Susquehanna raised its price target to $500 on 7/30 and IBD noted data-center revenue surged 57% YoY to a record $5.7B in Q1 with AI infrastructure deals expanding at Microsoft, Anthropic, and Meta. The iron condor collects $9.73/share and keeps full premium unless AMD moves more than 11.9% up or 7.6% down — both well beyond what history suggests is likely. The short call at 527.5 also approximates a full mean-reversion from the recent $580 peak, making it a credible structural ceiling. Max risk $2,027.50 on a call-side blowout; max reward $972.50 if stock pins between 435 and 527.5. |
| Enter by | Before 4:00 PM ET on 2026-08-04 |
2. CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-12 (unknown) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-14 |
| Legs | -1 CSCO 127C / +1 CSCO 133C / -1 CSCO 108P / +1 CSCO 103P (all 2026-08-14) |
| Entry | +$1.99 credit per IC |
| Max risk / reward | $401 / $199 · breakeven $106.01 to $128.99 |
| P&L | +9.9%: +$131.00 · -9.9%: -$133.00 · flat: +$199.00 |
| IV | ATM IV 67.3% · expected move 9.9% · expected 9.90% vs hist 6.96% to IV is ~42% overpriced; even at the full expected-move up ($127.68) the IC is still profitable (+$131) because the short call at 127 is just inside that pin |
| Thesis | CSCO options embed a 42% premium over the 6-quarter historical average move of 6.96%. The stock has recovered from a 52-week low of $73.35 to a high of $130 and is now consolidating near $116 with no major binary catalyst signaled (no AI hardware overhang, no M&A rumor). The iron condor's short strikes sit at +9.3% (127C) and –7.0% (108P) from spot — wider than the historical average suggests is needed. Notably, even at the full 9.90% expected-move-up print the structure still books a +$131 profit, meaning the IC wins if the options market is even approximately right. Report time is listed as unknown; enter the day prior to guarantee exposure to peak IV regardless of pre/post-market timing. Max risk $401 vs reward $199. |
| Enter by | Before 4:00 PM ET on 2026-08-11 |
3. AMAT — Applied Materials, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-13 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-14 |
| Legs | -1 AMAT 590C / +1 AMAT 630C / -1 AMAT 460P / +1 AMAT 427.5P (all 2026-08-14) |
| Entry | +$13.15 credit per IC |
| Max risk / reward | $2685 / $1315 · breakeven $446.85 to $603.15 |
| P&L | +14.5%: +$1,315.00 · -14.5%: -$727.50 · flat: +$1,315.00 |
| IV | ATM IV 92.6% · expected move 14.5% · expected 14.48% vs hist 6.62% to IV is ~119% overpriced — largest premium overhang in scan; short call at 590 (+14.8%) aligns almost exactly with the expected-move ceiling, so the IC retains full credit on any up-move up to consensus; heavy put skew (put 25d IV 10.8% above call 25d IV) reflects sector hedging demand |
| Thesis | AMAT carries the largest IV premium overhang in the scan — 119% above its 6-quarter historical average earnings move of 6.62%. Lam Research's blowout Q4 print (adjusted EPS $1.82 vs $1.69 expected, revenue +30% YoY; reported 7/30) provided a direct positive read-through that lifted AMAT 15% the same day, capping near-term downside fear ahead of AMAT's own report. The short call at 590 sits precisely at the 14.8% expected-move ceiling so the IC captures its full $1,315 credit on any up-move to consensus or below. However, the semi-equipment sector is in an extreme volatility regime — AMAT moved more than 14% on individual sessions during 7/28–7/30 — and the pronounced put skew signals institutional caution about a large downside gap; size this position conservatively. Max risk $2,685 on a call-side blowout; max reward $1,315. |
| Enter by | Before 4:00 PM ET on 2026-08-13 |
Watchlist
- LLY — Expected move 7.52% vs historical average 7.79% — within the ±10% fair-value band; no discernible premium edge to trade. ATM IV of 80.5% on the 2026-08-07 weekly is elevated in absolute terms but reflects the stock's own earnings history (5-quarter avg 7.79%, median 9.8%, last print +9.8%). Revisit if IV spikes materially in the 24 hours before the 2026-08-05 BMO print; at that point re-measure the straddle for edge.
- SPCX — ATM IV of 184.7% and expected move of 16.8% on the 2026-08-07 expiry — extreme readings. However, Theta data confirms zero prior confirmed earnings prints in its 800-day coverage window, making it impossible to benchmark the IV against historical moves per scan rules. The IBD/DJ wire additionally flags a lockup expiration of ~900M shares (doubling the float) due the same week, which is a large non-earnings binary that inflates IV independently. Cannot recommend a trade without a historical benchmark; watchlist until at least 2 confirmed prior prints are available.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 7.5% | 7.8% | FAIR |
| AMD | 11.4% | 8.8% | OVERPRICED |
| CSCO | 9.9% | 7.0% | OVERPRICED |
| AMAT | 14.5% | 6.6% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-08-02 21:44 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-08-03
