Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-08-24
Algolearn.AI August 23, 2026 3 min read 27 views
Earnings 2026-08-24 ? 2026-09-06 · 2 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-06. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-26 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-28 |
| Legs | -1 227.5C / +1 235C / -1 205P / +1 200P |
| Entry | +$2.34 credit per condor |
| Max risk / reward | $516 / $234 · breakeven $202.66 to $229.84 |
| P&L | +6.1%: +$144 · -6.1%: -$53 · flat: +$234 |
| IV | ATM IV 62.9% · expected move 6.1% · Expected 6.1% vs hist 4.26% (6 qtrs) ? 43% overpriced; slight 2.3% put skew |
| Thesis | The options market prices a 6.1% post-earnings move against a 6-quarter historical average of 4.26%, making the straddle 43% overpriced in expected-move terms. TD Cowen (Buy/$275) explicitly notes that positive beats have not driven the stock higher in recent quarters, and widely-flagged gross-margin compression (Munster projects 73–74% vs. 74.8% consensus) is unlikely to surprise. The stock is consolidating in a 13-week cup base well below the $236.54 breakout level, limiting upside extension. The iron condor short legs at the 25-delta strikes (227.5C / 205P) sit just outside both the historical-average move range, with the call-wing long at 235C and put-wing long at 200P capping max loss at $516 per contract. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-26 15:30 ET |
2. MRVL — Marvell Technology, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-27 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-28 |
| Legs | -1 267.5C / +1 282.5C / -1 220P / +1 210P |
| Entry | +$4.62 credit per condor |
| Max risk / reward | $1038 / $462 · breakeven $215.38 to $272.12 |
| P&L | +11.3%: +$177 · -11.3%: +$3 · flat: +$462 |
| IV | ATM IV 96.1% · expected move 11.3% · Expected 11.3% vs hist 9.58% (3 qtrs only) ? 18% overpriced; heavy 25.1% put skew elevates downside fear premium |
| Thesis | IV prices an 11.3% post-earnings move versus a 9.58% historical average (18% overpriced), though the confirmed sample is thin at 3 quarters. Citigroup raised its target to $275 (from $225) and Oppenheimer raised to $300 (from $250) both on Aug 21 with the stock at $237–243, signaling strong pre-print analyst conviction. However, all three historical earnings moves are negative (?4.6%, ?5.6%, ?18.6%), and the 25.1% put skew shows the market is already paying a steep fear premium for downside protection — itself a form of vol overpricing. The iron condor short legs (267.5C / 220P at ~25-delta) capture both the IV overpricing and the elevated skew; the lower breakeven of $215.38 aligns almost exactly with the full expected-move down of $215.41, so the trade survives any realized move at or within the implied expectation. Caution: thin 3-quarter history; size accordingly. Max risk $1,038 per contract. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-27 15:30 ET |
Watchlist
- AVGO — Broadcom reports 2026-09-02 AMC; Sep-4 weekly chain shows 9.5% expected move (atm_iv 0.6877) with an unusual negative put skew of ?7.4% (calls costlier than puts, suggesting call-side demand). theta_get_earnings_moves returned zero confirmed prints against the Nasdaq calendar in the last 800 days — the expected-vs-historical framework cannot be applied. Cannot recommend a trade without a historical baseline. Re-evaluate if data becomes available before the print.
- DELL — Dell reports 2026-09-01 AMC; Sep-4 weekly. Expected move 14.35% vs historical avg 13.04% (6 qtrs) = 10.05% above historical — barely crosses the 10% sell-premium threshold. However, historical moves range wildly from 2.1% to 32.8%, with the last two quarters printing +21.9% and +32.8% — making the mean a noisy anchor. ATM IV of 0.99 and near-flat skew (0.4%) provide no directional signal. The 1.3-point gap between expected and historical is noise, not edge. Judgment: watchlist only until a clearer mis-pricing or confirmed directional catalyst emerges.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 6.1% | 4.3% | OVERPRICED |
| MRVL | 11.3% | 9.6% | OVERPRICED |
| DELL | 14.4% | 13.0% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-08-23 15:32 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-08-24