Short Squeeze Scan — 2026-08-02
Algolearn.AI August 2, 2026 4 min read 3 views
Squeeze 2026-08-02 · 2 top setups · 1 watchlist · 27 no signal
Automated daily scan of high-short-interest US stocks, scored against a 7-point short-squeeze checklist (the same warning signs that preceded the April 2026 CAR squeeze). Each top setup includes a defined-risk options idea built from live chain data. Not investment advice.
Top setups
GRPN (6/7)
Groupon (GRPN) is the top-ranked setup in this universe: 58.91% SI on a 19.89M float with 90% institutionally owned — leaving only ~2M shares effectively tradeable. At 11.3 days to cover with Q2 FY2026 earnings on August 6 (this Thursday), the setup stacks structural squeeze risk against a near-term binary catalyst. Price has already surged +64.6% over 28 sessions with sustained elevated volume. The sole miss is the remarkably low 0.54% borrow rate — shorts are not paying elevated carry, which limits pure mechanical covering pressure; a positive earnings beat or beat-and-raise is the likely force that compels covering.
- [PASS] Short interest > 40% of float: 58.91% of float per highshortinterest.com (2026-08-02); ~11.62M shares short on a 19.89M-share float — nearly 3-in-5 shares sold short
- [PASS] Days to cover > 5: 11.0M shares short ÷ 969K avg daily volume (Nasdaq/FINRA settlement data) = 11.3 days to cover
- [PASS] Tiny free float with institutions locked up: Institutional ownership 90.05% of shares (MarketBeat); with 90% institutionally held, only ~2.0M shares are effectively free-float out of the 19.89M reported float — well above the 75% lockup threshold
- [FAIL] Rising borrow costs: Borrow fee 0.54% with 1.8M shares available (Fintel); extremely low — shorts are NOT paying an elevated premium to stay short, which tempers mechanical squeeze pressure
- [PASS] Near-term catalyst (earnings, FDA, tariff, etc.): Q2 FY2026 earnings release scheduled Thursday August 6, 2026 after-close; investor call August 7; company guidance: $126–128M revenue, $13–15M adj EBITDA, ?$10M free cash flow; Project Foundry AI restructuring narrative in play
- [PASS] Heavy call buying / call skew > put skew: Aug 21 chain (19 DTE): call 25-delta IV 139.6% vs put 25-delta IV 131.5% — calls priced 6.1% above puts (inverted from normal put-skew); ATM IV 131.1% annualized; ATM straddle $6.70 on $27.72 underlying; expected move ±24.2% over 19 days
- [PASS] Price momentum turning up despite heavy short interest: $16.76 close June 23 ? $27.58 close July 31, +64.6% over 28 sessions; volume sustained at 1.0–3.9M shares/day against a ~2M free-float — short sellers have been absorbing enormous buying pressure
| Strategy | bull call spread |
|---|---|
| Expiry | 2026-08-21 |
| Legs | long 1x $31 call, short 1x $36 call |
| Cost | $1.05 debit per spread (mids: $2.23 ? $1.18) |
| Max risk / reward | $105 per spread / $395 per spread · breakeven $32.05 |
WGS (5/7)
GeneDx (WGS) scores 5/7 with earnings after-close TOMORROW (August 3): 39.75% SI (just 0.25 pts shy of 40%), 113% institutional ownership of float confirming extreme lockup, and 8.7 days to cover. The Aug 7 options chain shows 241% annualized IV with call 25-delta IV running at 4.3× put 25-delta IV — the most extreme near-term call skew in the scan — while the Aug 21 chain sustains a ?15.8% call-over-put premium. FY2026 guidance of $540–555M revenue (+33–35% exome growth) provides a credible beat narrative. The two misses are SI% technically below 40% and unconfirmed borrow rate; the wide bid-ask spreads on WGS options (up to $2.70 wide on a single leg) mean fills above mid should be expected.
- [FAIL] Short interest > 40% of float: 39.75% of float per highshortinterest.com — 6.73M shares short on 16.94M-share float; misses the 40% threshold by 0.25 percentage points
- [PASS] Days to cover > 5: 6.73M shares short ÷ 774K avg daily volume (28-day EOD average) = 8.7 days to cover
- [PASS] Tiny free float with institutions locked up: Institutional ownership 113.16% of float (TradingKey/Nasdaq, Q2 2026) — institutions hold more shares than the entire reported float, a structural lockup signal; float = 16.94M of 29.69M total outstanding (57%), with institutions absorbing the float and then some
- [FAIL] Rising borrow costs: Borrow rate not confirmed from public sources at scan time; cannot meet the evidence threshold — fails this criterion
- [PASS] Near-term catalyst (earnings, FDA, tariff, etc.): Q2 FY2026 earnings after-close Monday August 3, 2026 (tomorrow); FY2026 guidance issued in Q1 report: $540–555M revenue, 33–35% exome/genome volume growth; $25M OpEx reduction program announced (SEC Form 8-K)
- [PASS] Heavy call buying / call skew > put skew: Aug 7 chain (5 DTE, straddles earnings): ATM IV 241.1%; call 25-delta IV 243.4% vs put 25-delta IV 56.9% (extreme ?92.6% skew; calls priced at 4.3× put IV); Aug 21 chain (19 DTE): call 25-delta IV 141.1% vs put 25-delta IV 118.7% (?15.8% skew); sustained call premium across both expiries confirms concentrated upside positioning ahead of earnings
- [PASS] Price momentum turning up despite heavy short interest: $58.08 close June 23 ? $65.11 close July 31, +12.1%; stock hit $68.96 intraday on July 30, recovering from $62.43 low on July 14; upward trajectory intact heading into earnings
| Strategy | bull call spread |
|---|---|
| Expiry | 2026-08-21 |
| Legs | long 1x $72 call, short 1x $85 call |
| Cost | $2.28 debit per spread (mids: $4.65 ? $2.375) |
| Max risk / reward | $228 per spread / $1,072 per spread · breakeven $74.28 |
Watchlist
| Ticker | Score | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| FLWS | 3/7 | 1-800-Flowers (FLWS) is a structural watchlist name: 37.22% SI on a 10.38M-share float with 13.3 days to cover and a 3.17% borrow fee confirm real squeeze plumbing. Price has drifted steadily up +9.9% with no reversal. Three criteria prevent promotion: SI% misses 40%, the 72% float lockup falls just short of the 75% threshold (and is unconfirmed institutionally), no confirmed near-term catalyst date, and options are too illiquid to verify unusual activity. Monitor for Q4 FY2026 earnings date announcement, which would add criterion 5. |
No signal
HTZ, SPCE, BATL, NEGG, SOUN, LCID, AI, WYFI, FLNC, EVGO, RXRX, PCT, PLCE, SLS, INDI, SERV, UPST, SPRY, KRUS, XRX, HIMS, XPOF, SRPT, RUN, BBAI, CRML, SPHR
Generated 2026-08-02 14:59 UTC by the AlgoLearn squeeze scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/squeeze-scan-2026-08-02
