Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-08-31
Algolearn.AI August 30, 2026 4 min read 11 views
Earnings 2026-08-31 ? 2026-09-13 · 3 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. PANW — Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-09-01 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-09-04 |
| Legs | +1 332.5P / -1 350P / -1 407.5C / +1 425C |
| Entry | +$7.05 credit per iron condor |
| Max risk / reward | $1046 / $704 · breakeven $342.96 to $414.55 |
| P&L | +9.4%: +$282 (underlying ~$411.73, inside upper breakeven) · -9.4%: -$171 (underlying ~$341.25, short 350P breached by $8.75) · flat: +$705 |
| IV | ATM IV 87.0% · expected move 9.4% · expected 9.36% vs hist 5.11% ? 83% overpriced; IV is nearly 2× the historical average earnings move; all 5 measured quarters moved between 2.6% and 7.4% |
| Thesis | PANW IV is pricing in 9.36% vs a 5.11% historical average — the largest relative premium in this scan. The Jefferies PT raise to $450 (from $335) on 8/28 and CrowdStrike's strong quarter appear to have inflated upside call premium significantly. The iron condor profits if the realized move stays within 10.7% of spot — a threshold never reached in any of the five prior quarters on record. The EM-up print of ~$411.73 lands inside the $414.55 upper breakeven, leaving the trade net profitable at the implied move. Put skew (put 25d IV 1.09 vs call 25d IV 0.91) provides additional buffer: downside vol is well-supported by the 350P/332.5P spread. |
| Enter by | before market close 2026-09-01 |
2. ADBE — Adobe Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-09-10 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-09-11 |
| Legs | +1 260P / -1 270P / -1 317.5C / +1 330C |
| Entry | +$3.95 credit per iron condor |
| Max risk / reward | $855 / $395 · breakeven $266.05 to $321.45 |
| P&L | +9.2%: +$395 (underlying ~$316.53 lands just inside $317.50 short call — full credit retained) · -9.2%: -$306 (underlying ~$262.99, short 270P breached by $7.01) · flat: +$395 |
| IV | ATM IV 68.6% · expected move 9.2% · expected 9.24% vs hist 6.00% ? 54% overpriced; B of A Underperform at $220 PT with stock near $290; 5 of 6 quarters lower post-earnings; upside skew (call 25d IV 0.683 > put 25d IV 0.575) adds cushion to short call |
| Thesis | ADBE IV is pricing in a 9.24% move vs a 6.00% historical average — 54% overpriced. B of A has an Underperform rating with a $220 price target (stock ~$290), and 5 of the last 6 earnings reactions were negative with an average absolute move of 6.0%. Critically, the EM-up of ~$316.53 lands just below the $317.50 short call, meaning even a historically average up-move collects full credit. The 12.5-point call wing caps worst-case at $855. Wide bid-ask on the 270P (~$2.54 spread) and 317.5C (~$1.85 spread) — use limit orders targeting the mid. |
| Enter by | before market close 2026-09-10 |
3. ORCL — Oracle Corporation (bull call spread)
| Earnings | 2026-09-08 (unknown) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-09-11 |
| Legs | +1 152.5C / -1 170C |
| Entry | -$5.33 debit per spread |
| Max risk / reward | $532 / $1218 · breakeven $157.83 |
| P&L | +12.1%: +$1,142 (underlying ~$169.24, just inside $170 short call at near-max value) · -12.1%: -$533 (both calls expire worthless) · flat: -$533 (152.5C expires near-worthless with stock at $150.94) |
| IV | ATM IV 83.4% · expected move 12.1% · expected 12.12% vs hist 13.74% ? 11.8% underpriced; Citi 'positive catalyst watch' at $330 PT; 80% analyst Buy rate; stock at 17× fwd earnings vs 50× peak; down 39% from 52w high of $248.15 |
| Thesis | ORCL options modestly underprice the historical average move (12.12% expected vs 13.74% historical avg). The fundamental setup is compelling: Citi placed a 'positive catalyst watch' on 8/27 citing extreme valuation dislocation (17× fwd earnings vs 50× at peak), accelerating AI cloud sales (+30% annual growth expected), and an August AWS collaboration deepening on Oracle AI Database. Wall St is 80% Buy with an avg target ~$250. The bull call spread at 152.5/170 pays 2.3:1 at max and captures ~$1,142 profit if ORCL reaches the EM-up of ~$169.24 — which is just inside the $170 short call. Report timing is listed as unknown; confirm AMC vs BMO before entry and size accordingly. |
| Enter by | before market close 2026-09-08 |
Watchlist
- AVGO — Expected 8.91% vs historical 8.64% (3.1% above) — FAIR, within the ±10% no-trade zone. Options are efficiently priced for a marquee AI-chip earnings print. No actionable edge in the chain; the straddle closely mirrors a 6-quarter average that includes a 12.59% outlier. Revisit only if the chain reprices materially closer to the 9/2 event.
- DELL — Expected 15.43% vs historical 13.04% (18.3% above) — technically overpriced, but the 6-quarter historical average is severely distorted by two AI-driven outliers (+21.9% in Feb 2026 and +32.8% in May 2026); the median move is only 7.82%. Chain shows extreme call-side IV dislocation (ATM call mid $55.83 vs put $7.15 at the 407.5 strike, skew ?72.6%), making clean iron condor pricing unreliable. UBS and Morgan Stanley both Neutral; a director sold ~$885K in shares on 8/24; Dow Jones Market Talk flagged enterprise OEMs with 'tough setup ahead of earnings.' Watchlist until the chain asymmetry resolves.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 8.9% | 8.6% | FAIR |
| ORCL | 12.1% | 13.7% | UNDERPRICED |
| PANW | 9.4% | 5.1% | OVERPRICED |
| DELL | 15.4% | 13.0% | OVERPRICED |
| MDT | 5.0% | 4.9% | FAIR |
| ADBE | 9.2% | 6.0% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-08-30 23:18 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-08-31
