Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-07-13
Algolearn.AI July 12, 2026 4 min read 1 views
Earnings 2026-07-13 ? 2026-07-26 · 3 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-07-13 and 2026-07-26. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. TSLA — Tesla, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-07-22 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-24 |
| Legs | -1 440C / +1 457.5C / -1 382.5P / +1 367.5P |
| Entry | +$5.73 credit per iron condor (call spread $2.65 + put spread $3.08, at mid) |
| Max risk / reward | $1178 / $572 · breakeven $376.78 (down) / $445.73 (up) |
| P&L | +8.1%: +$533 (stock ~$440.40, 440C barely ITM, $40 call-spread loss absorbed by $573 total credit) · -8.1%: -$208 (stock ~$374.70, midway through 382.5/367.5 put spread: $780 spread loss minus $573 credit) · flat: +$573 (all four legs expire worthless, keep full credit) |
| IV | ATM IV 56.0% · expected move 8.1% · Expected 8.06% vs. historical 8-quarter median 6.9% (TipRanks) ? implied vol ~17% overpriced relative to realized; flat skew (1.41%) confirms no strong directional bias in options market |
| Thesis | TSLA IV is pricing in an 8.06% post-earnings swing versus a confirmed 6.9% eight-quarter historical median—a 17% premium with no directional tilt. Q2 2026 EPS consensus of $0.28 is essentially flat versus prior-year $0.27, sharply reducing the odds of a blowout catalyst that would justify elevated IV. The IC's breakevens at $376.78–$445.73 span a ±9.3%/±7.6% band from current price, providing meaningful buffer beyond the options-implied range; only a move exceeding historical norms on the downside generates a loss. |
| Enter by | 2026-07-22 by 3:30 PM ET (before AMC report) |
2. TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-07-16 (BMO) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-17 |
| Legs | -1 462.5C / +1 477.5C / -1 412.5P / +1 400P |
| Entry | +$4.67 credit per iron condor (call spread $2.36 + put spread $2.31, at mid) |
| Max risk / reward | $1033 / $467 · breakeven $407.83 (down) / $467.17 (up) |
| P&L | +6.4%: +$367 (stock ~$463.50, 462.5C $1.00 ITM: $100 spread loss vs. $467 credit) · -6.4%: +$7 (stock ~$407.90, 412.5P $4.60 ITM: $460 spread loss vs. $467 credit; essentially breakeven) · flat: +$467 (all legs expire worthless, keep full credit) |
| IV | ATM IV 65.6% · expected move 6.4% · Expected 6.38% vs. prior-quarter implied ~4.39% and Q1 2026 realized -1.23% (TipRanks/alphaquery) ? ATM IV of 65.6% appears materially overpriced relative to recent realized moves; skew mildly elevated at 1.10% |
| Thesis | TSM's ATM IV of 65.6% is extreme for a large-cap ADR, pricing a 6.38% move versus a Q1 2026 realized move of only -1.23% (prior quarter implied ~4.39%). The IC's downside breakeven at $407.83 nearly aligns with the lower expected-move boundary at $407.90, meaning only a move exceeding the full implied range generates a loss. While AI chip demand (CoWoS, 2nm ramp) supports bullish fundamentals, the vol premium generously compensates for that uncertainty. Note: 7/17 expiry is one day post-BMO report—gamma resolves quickly but use limit orders to avoid wide-spread slippage (ATM call spread ~5.4%). |
| Enter by | 2026-07-15 by 4:00 PM ET (day before BMO report) |
3. JPM — J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (bull put spread)
| Earnings | 2026-07-14 (BMO) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-17 |
| Legs | -1 332.5P / +1 320P |
| Entry | +$3.19 credit per spread (short 332.5P at $4.50 mid / long 320P at $1.31 mid) |
| Max risk / reward | $931 / $319 · breakeven $329.31 |
| P&L | +3.8%: +$319 (stock ~$349.16, both puts expire OTM, keep full credit) · -3.8%: -$553 (stock ~$323.78, 332.5P $8.72 ITM: $872 spread loss minus $319 credit) · flat: +$319 (stock stays near $336.47, both puts OTM, keep full credit) |
| IV | ATM IV 38.2% · expected move 3.8% · Expected 3.77% vs. historical 8-quarter average 2.4% (Investing.com) ? ~57% overpriced on absolute basis; put 25-delta IV (40.8%) significantly exceeds call 25-delta IV (38.3%), skew 6.47%—elevated put premium makes the short put leg especially attractive |
| Thesis | JPM enters Q2 2026 at 0.8% from its 52-week high ($336.47 vs. $339.22 peak), backed by a newly authorized $50B buyback, a dividend increase to $1.65/quarter effective Q3, and Moderate Buy consensus (12 Buy / 14 Hold, zero Sells of 26 analysts). The company has beaten EPS estimates in 14 of the last 16 quarters; Q2 consensus is $5.52 vs. $4.96 prior year (+11.3%). The bull put spread profits as long as JPM remains above $329.31 (?2.1% from current) through July 17; the elevated put skew lets us collect premium that reflects downside anxiety the fundamental setup does not fully support. |
| Enter by | 2026-07-13 by 4:00 PM ET (Monday, day before BMO report) |
Watchlist
- GOOG — Expected 6.98% move (ATM IV 48.6%, exp 2026-07-24, earnings 7/22 AMC). Q1 2026 stock surged +10% versus an implied move of only 4.67%—suggesting options have historically underpriced Alphabet's tail. With $190B capex cycle and 32.5% FY2026 EPS growth projected, another outsized print is plausible. If IV expands further into 7/22 and a bullish lean develops, consider a call debit spread (e.g., long 365C / short 377.5C) rather than the IC; alternatively, if historical average confirmed near 5–6%, the IC with short 377.5C/337.5P and 15-delta wings ($5.01 credit, breakevens $382.51/$332.50) becomes actionable.
- ASML — Expected 8.46% move (ATM IV 88.7%, exp 2026-07-17, earnings 7/15 BMO). Recent realized moves have been far below implied: Jan 2026 actual ?2.18% vs. implied ~5.79%; Apr 2026 actual ?2.4%. IV is clearly rich on recent history, making premium selling attractive in principle. However, three obstacles prevent recommending a trade: (1) bid/ask spreads are $2–3 wide on 25-delta strikes (atm_call_spread_pct 6.6%), making execution expensive; (2) unresolved US–China export controls have already caused >7% single-session moves and create asymmetric gap risk; (3) only one day to expiry after the 7/15 BMO print. Monitor for spread compression or a cleaner entry if the next quarterly expiry is available.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 8.1% | 6.9% | OVERPRICED |
| JPM | 3.8% | 2.4% | OVERPRICED |
| TSM | 6.4% | 4.4% | OVERPRICED |
| GOOG | 7.0% | 5.0% | OVERPRICED |
| ASML | 8.5% | 7.0% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-07-12 14:28 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-07-13