Earnings Options Scan — Next two weeks from 2026-10-12
Algolearn.AI October 11, 2026 2 min read 13 views
Earnings 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-25 · 2 trades · 4 watchlist
Automated scan of the top 6 names by market cap reporting earnings between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-25. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-10-15 (BMO) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-10-16 |
| Legs | -1 480C / +1 487.5C / -1 430P / +1 422.5P |
| Entry | +$1.74 credit per iron condor |
| Fill band | $1.42 credit crossing every spread (-$32 vs the mid, widest leg 15% wide) |
| Max risk / reward | $576 / $174 (0.30:1) · breakeven $428.26 - $481.74 |
| P&L | +4.3%: +$174 · -4.3%: +$174 · flat: +$174 |
| Expected move | expected move stays inside both short strikes (up clears by $7.38, down clears by $4.06) |
| IV | ATM IV 39.1% · expected move 4.3% · expected 4.25% vs hist 3.63% over 8 quarters -> 17.1% overpriced |
| Thesis | Bernstein previews AI demand as a continued tailwind and September monthly revenue as tracking above consensus, but broader sector sentiment shifted this week on AI infrastructure spending doubts. The bullish and skeptical reads offset, and the iron condor expresses that deadlock without taking a side — wings are placed wide enough to cover the full expected move in either direction. |
2. JPM — J P Morgan Chase & Co (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-10-13 (BMO) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-10-16 |
| Legs | -1 347.5C / +1 352.5C / -1 320P / +1 315P |
| Entry | +$1.34 credit per iron condor |
| Fill band | $1.17 credit crossing every spread (-$17 vs the mid, widest leg 15% wide) |
| Max risk / reward | $366 / $134 (0.37:1) · breakeven $318.65 - $348.85 |
| P&L | +3.6%: +$134 · -3.6%: +$134 · flat: +$134 |
| Expected move | expected move stays inside both short strikes (up clears by $2.11, down clears by $1.54) |
| IV | ATM IV 32.3% · expected move 3.6% · expected 3.58% vs hist 2.82% over 8 quarters -> 26.8% overpriced |
| Thesis | The wire carries no JPM-specific analyst previews or guidance chatter ahead of the print, and JPM's earnings reaction history runs tighter than the current chain implies. The iron condor places its short strikes outside the expected move on each side, collecting the full modeled credit so long as the stock stays inside its historical range. |
Watchlist
- JNJ — Sell-side lifted price targets into the print and the edge metric signals substantial overpricing, but bid-ask spreads are too wide to trust mid-market credits; revisit if the chain tightens.
- LRCX — Analyst coverage is constructive going into print, but the only available structure places its short strike inside the expected down move and sector-wide AI-revenue uncertainty makes the downside lean uncomfortable.
- TSLA — Implied sits close to its measured history, so there is no premium edge worth crossing a spread for.
- ASML — Implied sits close to its measured history, so there is no premium edge worth crossing a spread for.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict | Widest quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 4.2% | 3.6% | OVERPRICED | 19% |
| TSLA | 7.5% | 7.9% | FAIR | 5% |
| JPM | 3.6% | 2.8% | OVERPRICED | 16% |
| ASML | 6.1% | 6.0% | FAIR | 48% |
| JNJ | 3.6% | 2.2% | OVERPRICED | 50% |
| LRCX | 9.9% | 6.9% | OVERPRICED | 42% |
Generated 2026-10-11 20:24 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-10-12
