Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-08-17
Algolearn.AI August 16, 2026 2 min read 17 views
Earnings 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-30 · 2 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-30. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-26 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-28 |
| Legs | -1 240C / +1 247.5C / -1 215P / +1 207.5P (all Aug-28) |
| Entry | +$2.86 credit per iron condor |
| Max risk / reward | $464 / $286 · breakeven $212.14 – $242.86 |
| P&L | +6.7%: +$238 · -6.7%: -$166 · flat: +$286 |
| IV | ATM IV 47.2% · expected move 6.7% · expected 6.65% vs hist 2.52% to 164% overpriced (2-quarter sample; gap is extreme even discounting thin history) |
| Thesis | NVDA's Aug-28 straddle prices a 6.65% post-earnings move versus only two measured historical prints averaging 2.52% (–3.15% Nov-25, –1.90% May-26), embedding a 164% premium over realized history — the widest relative mispricing in this scan. The $2.86 credit on equal $7.50 wings keeps the full premium if the stock moves less than 6.4% in either direction; at the historical average the condor earns max profit. Bearish newsflow (NVDA trimming its OpenAI Ohio data-center backstop from $250B to under $120B; Third Point's Q2 exit) tilts directional risk modestly downward, but the open-weight AI tailwind highlighted in today's WSJ limits catastrophic gap risk; the iron condor's defined wings cap loss to $464 regardless. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-26 before market close |
2. BABA — Alibaba Group Holding Limited (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-20 (BMO) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-21 |
| Legs | -1 131C / +1 136C / -1 116P / +1 113P (all Aug-21) |
| Entry | +$1.43 credit per iron condor |
| Max risk / reward | $357 / $143 · breakeven $114.57 – $132.43 |
| P&L | +6.9%: +$143 · -6.9%: -$108 · flat: +$143 |
| IV | ATM IV 100.2% · expected move 6.9% · expected 6.93% vs hist 6.20% to 12% overpriced (4-quarter sample; borderline threshold) |
| Thesis | BABA's Aug-21 straddle implies a 6.93% move against a 4-quarter historical average of 6.20%, a 12% relative premium that clears the sell-premium threshold. The expected-move upper boundary ($130.39) lands just below the short call ($131.00), giving the call side a small but meaningful buffer; positive call skew (call 25d IV 95.4% vs put 25d IV 69.5%) — likely driven by today's announced gaming-arm sale to Trustar Capital for at least $1.5B — means the short call collects richer premium than the short put. Active class-action lawsuits (multiple firms, Oct-5 lead-plaintiff deadline) elevate binary tail risk; position should be sized at half the notional of NVDA to reflect the thin statistical base and litigation overhang. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-19 by market close |
Watchlist
- WMT — Expected move 5.02% (Aug-21 expiry, BMO 2026-08-20) vs 6-quarter historical average of 4.70% — a 6.8% relative premium, inside the ±10% fair-value band. No pricing edge to cross the spread; the straddle is fairly priced. Re-evaluate intraday on Aug-19 if guidance pre-release or macro retail data materially shifts vol.
- RY — Earnings BMO 2026-08-27. The nearest available expiry is 2026-08-21, six days before the event — options expire before the catalyst fires. No post-earnings expiry found within 14 days; event risk cannot be captured with a defined-risk options structure at this time.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 6.7% | 2.5% | OVERPRICED |
| WMT | 5.0% | 4.7% | FAIR |
| BABA | 6.9% | 6.2% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-08-17 04:56 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-08-17
