Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-06-22
Algolearn.AI June 21, 2026 3 min read 17 views
Earnings 2026-06-22 ? 2026-07-05 · 2 trades · 2 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-06-22 and 2026-07-05. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. MU — Micron Technology, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-06-24 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-06-26 |
| Legs | -1 1310C / +1 1395C / -1 1030P / +1 955P |
| Entry | +$29.73 credit per share (+$2,972.50 per 1-lot; mids: sell 1310C $26.08, buy 1395C $14.53, sell 1030P $37.40, buy 955P $19.23) |
| Max risk / reward | $5528 / $2972 · breakeven $1,000.28 (lower) to $1,339.73 (upper) |
| P&L | +14.2%: +$2,446 (stock ~$1,315; 1310C ITM ~$5.27, loss $527; net $2,973 ? $527) · -14.2%: -$1,275 (stock ~$988; 1030P ITM ~$42.47, loss $4,247; net $2,973 ? $4,247) · flat: +$2,973 |
| IV | ATM IV 136.0% · expected move 14.2% · Expected 14.24% vs historical 8-qtr absolute avg 8.59% ? ~66% overpriced. ATM IV 135.97%. Put skew 16.8%: 25? put IV 167.0% vs 25? call IV 142.9% — downside fear makes selling puts especially rich. |
| Thesis | MU options price a 14.24% move against an 8-quarter absolute-average actual move of 8.59% (individual quarters: ?13.8%, +23.8%, ?11.2%, ?1.0%, +4.7%, +2.5%, ?1.5%, +10.2%), inflating premium ~66%. Stock is at its 52-week high ($1,134 EOD / $1,151 chain) with 27/27 analysts at Strong Buy, HBM capacity sold out through 2026, and Q3 consensus ~$19.82 EPS on ~$34.8B revenue. The condor's breakevens at ?13.1% / +16.4% are comfortably outside the historical average; if MU moves ±8.6% (historical avg) both wings expire worthless. Key risk: a full 14.24% down-move (~$988) breaches the $1,030 short put for a partial loss; max put-side loss $4,528 occurs only below $955. |
| Enter by | 2026-06-24 before 3:00 PM ET |
2. NKE — Nike, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-06-30 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-07-02 |
| Legs | -1 50C / +1 53C / -1 41.5P / +1 40P |
| Entry | +$0.86 credit per share (+$86.00 per 1-lot; mids: sell 50C $0.89, buy 53C $0.40, sell 41.5P $0.98, buy 40P $0.61) |
| Max risk / reward | $214 / $86 · breakeven $40.64 (lower) to $50.86 (upper) |
| P&L | +11.0%: +$69 (stock ~$50.17; 50C ITM ~$0.17, loss $17; net $86 ? $17) · -11.0%: -$43 (stock ~$40.21; 41.5P ITM ~$1.29, 40P OTM, loss $129; net $86 ? $129) · flat: +$86 |
| IV | ATM IV 78.7% · expected move 11.0% · Expected 11.02% vs historical 8-qtr avg actual move 4.61% (Unusual Whales) ? ~139% overpriced. ATM IV 78.71%. Skew nearly flat at 1.26% — puts and calls symmetrically elevated, ideal for selling both wings. |
| Thesis | NKE options imply an 11.02% earnings move against a historical 8-quarter average of 4.61%, making premium ~139% elevated. Well-telegraphed headwinds — ~$1.5B annualized tariff cost, China weakness, Q4 EPS consensus down ~21% YoY, analyst fair value ~$82 vs current $45 — are largely priced in with stock near its 52-week low ($45.20 vs $74.57 high). The $50 short call requires a +10.6% rally to be at risk, which is unlikely given the macro backdrop; the put wing is narrow by design ($1.50 wide, max put-side loss only $64) so the asymmetric structure benefits from IV crush in either direction. Near-flat skew confirms no directional edge in the options market itself. |
| Enter by | 2026-06-30 before 3:00 PM ET |
Watchlist
- FDX — Strong premium-selling candidate: expected move 8.23% vs historical 8-qtr absolute avg 3.59% (~129% overpriced). Disqualified from trades due to severely illiquid options — ATM call bid-ask spread is 42.7% of mid ($5.25/$8.10); 25? put spread is ~45% of mid ($5.80/$9.15). The June 1 Freight spin-off (FDXF) also reduces reliability of historical move comps. If spreads tighten Monday June 23 pre-open, a bull put spread (?$312.5P / +$300P, mid credit $3.66, max risk $884, breakeven $308.85) becomes actionable — breakeven sits below even the full expected move down (~$311.90), so the trade profits at any outcome except a catastrophic >8.7% drop.
- CBRS — Cerebras Systems first-ever public quarterly report (2026-06-23 AMC, 1 analyst estimate at ?$0.14 EPS). Expected move 15.05%, ATM IV 154.67%, slight negative skew (25? call IV 177.98% vs put 160.98% — calls pricier). Options are reasonably liquid (25? call spread ~19.6%). No historical earnings baseline exists — only 25 days of public price history — making expected-vs-historical comparison impossible. Suitable only for speculative premium-selling with full awareness that a single-event move of 20%+ is plausible for a newly public AI infrastructure name.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 14.2% | 8.6% | OVERPRICED |
| NKE | 11.0% | 4.6% | OVERPRICED |
| FDX | 8.2% | 3.6% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-06-21 14:18 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://pagerankcafe.com/pressRelease/blog/earnings-scan-2026-06-22
