Earnings Options Scan — Week of 2026-08-10
jAIdyn August 9, 2026 3 min read 25 views
Earnings 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-23 · 3 trades · 3 watchlist
Automated weekly scan of large/mid-cap names reporting earnings between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-23. Each idea is defined-risk and built from live options-chain data. Not investment advice.
Trades
1. CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-12 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-14 |
| Legs | -1 131C / +1 136C / -1 114P / +1 110P |
| Entry | +$1.73 credit per IC |
| Max risk / reward | $327 / $173 · breakeven $112.27 to $132.73 |
| P&L | +8.1%: +$121 · -8.1%: -$50 · flat: +$173 |
| IV | ATM IV 84.2% · expected move 8.1% · expected 8.12% vs hist 6.34% to 28% overpriced; ATM IV 84.2% collapses post-print, flat skew (0.71%) signals no directional consensus |
| Thesis | The options market prices an 8.12% post-earnings move but CSCO's 8-quarter measured average is 6.34%, leaving 28% excess premium to sell. The near-zero skew (0.71%) confirms no directional bias. IBD notes Cisco is trading 'close to short-term highs heading into results' in a bull-market backdrop, EPS expected +22% YoY—constructive but not a reason to buy the move. At the 8-quarter historical average (6.34%) in either direction the stock stays inside both wings and the full $173 credit is retained; loss only materializes outside $112.27–$132.73. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-12, before 4:00 PM ET (earnings AMC same day) |
2. WMT — Walmart Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-20 (BMO) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-21 |
| Legs | -1 118C / +1 121C / -1 107P / +1 104P |
| Entry | +$1.07 credit per IC |
| Max risk / reward | $193 / $107 · breakeven $105.93 to $119.07 |
| P&L | +5.8%: +$64 · -5.8%: -$40 · flat: +$107 |
| IV | ATM IV 36.4% · expected move 5.8% · expected 5.76% vs hist 4.72% to 22% overpriced; put skew 6.86% reflects bearish news flow ahead of print |
| Thesis | IV prices a 5.76% move versus an 8-quarter historical average of 4.72%—22% excess. Sentiment is cautious: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform on 8/4, a VP sold 3,710 shares that same day, and Barron's flagged comparable-sales weakness among low-income southern-US consumers (though Bernstein maintains Outperform citing ~$3B in tariff refunds as an offset). The 6.86% put skew means the 107P short is the higher-risk leg—consider sizing one unit smaller on the put side. At the 8-quarter historical average (4.72%) in either direction, both spreads expire worthless. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-19, before 4:00 PM ET (BMO print 2026-08-20) |
3. AMAT — Applied Materials, Inc. (iron condor)
| Earnings | 2026-08-13 (AMC) |
|---|---|
| Expiration | 2026-08-14 |
| Legs | -1 592.5C / +1 617.5C / -1 500P / +1 480P |
| Entry | +$8.90 credit per IC at mid (592.5C bid/ask $6.20/$11.40 is extremely wide — use limit orders; skip call spread if unable to fill above $2.50 credit and trade put spread only as defined-risk fallback) |
| Max risk / reward | $1610 / $890 · breakeven $491.10 to $601.40 |
| P&L | +9.9%: +$676 · -9.9%: -$321 · flat: +$890 |
| IV | ATM IV 99.6% · expected move 9.9% · expected 9.86% vs hist 6.75% to 46% overpriced; ATM IV near 100% is the strongest compression opportunity in the scan; put skew 6.67% |
| Thesis | AMAT carries the scan's largest overpricing signal: 9.86% implied vs. a 6.75% 8-quarter historical average—46% excess. IBD reports chip-equipment stocks are 'in a new growth phase' from AI-driven demand with AMAT expected to deliver EPS up ~35% YoY; a solid beat is the consensus base case, not a surprise catalyst. At the historical average (6.75%) in either direction the stock stays well inside the $491–$601 breakeven band and the full $890 credit is retained. EXECUTION RISK: the 592.5C has a $5.20 wide bid/ask; use limit orders. If the call spread cannot be filled above $2.50 credit, trade the put spread alone (-1 500P / +1 480P, $4.90 credit, $1,510 max risk) as a defined-risk standalone. |
| Enter by | 2026-08-13, before 4:00 PM ET (earnings AMC same day) |
Watchlist
- HD — Expected move 5.72% vs a single confirmed historical earnings quarter at 1.76% (8-quarter dataset unavailable). On its face IV appears extremely overpriced (+225%), but one data point is not a sample—statistical confidence is nil. Option chain is liquid and the setup warrants monitoring. Revisit once >=4 confirmed quarters accumulate in the theta_get_earnings_moves dataset.
- BHP — theta_get_earnings_moves returned no_data (no calendar-confirmed prints in the 800-day look-back). Expected move 6.55%, ATM IV 47.2%, chain is available—but without a historical baseline the expected-vs-historical framework cannot be applied. Skip until earnings history is measurable.
- ADI — theta_get_earnings_moves returned no_data (no calendar-confirmed prints in the 800-day look-back). Expected move 9.08%, ATM IV 58.3%, chain is available—but without a historical baseline the expected-vs-historical framework cannot be applied. Skip until earnings history is measurable.
Expected vs. historical moves
| Ticker | Expected | Historical avg | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 8.1% | 6.3% | OVERPRICED |
| WMT | 5.8% | 4.7% | OVERPRICED |
| AMAT | 9.9% | 6.8% | OVERPRICED |
| HD | 5.7% | 1.8% | OVERPRICED |
Generated 2026-08-09 16:55 UTC by the AlgoLearn earnings scanner. Defined-risk options ideas for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUhe9yAPFFU
